
Former FCC Commissioner Nicholas Johnson
Previously pulished in The Cedar Rapids Gazette
Wars have checklists. The U.S. should use them
by Nicholas Johnson
If you mow your lawn with a push mower your checklist is short: Step one, find mower. Step two, push it through the grass.
If you’re planning a vacation, wedding, or Thanksgiving dinner, the checklist becomes longer.
What’s this got to do with our war with Iran? Simply that wars also have checklists, and it’s not clear whether we’re using them.
For starters, you can’t just have a war anywhere.
As maritime administrator in the mid ‘60s, I needed to travel to Vietnam. The White House asked that while there, I gather and share my thoughts about the war. My conclusion: “You can’t play basketball on a football field.”
That’s to say, there are circumstances when war is not an easy option (e.g., you can’t speak the language; don’t know the culture, history or territory; you wear uniforms where the enemy doesn’t; there’s no front line).
My analysis had no impact — except for the White House decision I’d do better as FCC commissioner than maritime administrator. Oh, and the Iowa women’s team later showed it could play basketball on the Kinnick Stadium football field.
This month, as I’ve watched our military efforts spread from Iran to broader chaos for 15 Mideast countries and beyond, it brought to mind a 34-year old checklist proposed by Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and his senior military assistant, General Colin Powell. It was a list of the considerations and questions they felt should be resolved before a war.
Was this working checklist known to, or used by, those civilians who are dictating to the military a variety of strategies and reasons for our latest war? Or did the White House assume there was no more need for checklists and planning now than when pushing a mower through the grass?
The checklist: Clear Objective: Do we have a precisely defined, attainable goal?
Goal: Is it sufficiently important, clearly defined, and understood?
Vital Interests: Is a key national security interest at stake?
Alternatives: Have all nonviolent means been tried and failed?
Military: Will military air operations contribute or impede our goal?
Requirements: What will our goal require in troops, material and lives?
Success: What will constitute “success”?
Risks and Costs: Is “success” worth the possible impacts, risks and costs?
Knowledge: Do we know the language, history and terrain of the people?
Support: Will Americans, Congress and allies support a war? How long?
Exit: How can we leave without Vietnam or Afghanistan-like scenes?
Future: After we’ve left will the people be better or worse off, or the same?
Consistency: Will that be consistent with our original mission?
In the 1983 movie “War Games,” a computer counting down to a real “Global Thermonuclear War” is switched to tic-tac-toe. We might just conclude, as the computer did, that “The only winning move is not to play.”
Nicholas Johnson can be reached at mailbox@nicholasjohnson.org





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