Info. here for all of the Iowa races from Simon Rosenberg, founder of Hopium Chronicles and Josh Turek, Democrat running against Ashley Hinson for the U.S. Senate.
The Hopium community has already raised $170,000 for Josh and over $600,000 for the Iowa Democratic party and all of Hopium’s endorsed candidates in Iowa this cycle.
Follow Simon and The Hopium Chronicles on Substack.
A couple of highlights from Simon’s most recent conversation with Josh Turek about the state of the races in Iowa.
Simon:
” I think they are spending more per voter in Iowa than any of the other battleground states… They’re making a stand here. They have decided that, looking at the map, that they cannot lose here and they are going to do whatever it takes to beat Josh, to beat Rob Sand, to beat our three candidates.
And so they’re going to throw everything they can at you. But also we could end up winning your seat, the governorship, three house races, make significant gains at the state legislative level. This is a year of opportunity for Democrats.
And so, it’s really important folks, as you make your final decisions of where you’re going to give today, that you give here.”
Josh:
“They are trying to buy off this election. They just announced today another $20 million getting dumped into my race. I believe they’re up to $85 million on TV alone. That’s not even including mail or digital. But Iowans are ready for change. And so with your help out there and folks’ help, we’re going to be able to do something really special come November. If we win this race in Iowa, we will not only make a generational change in the state of Iowa, we will be able to change the country. And that should be something that’s very, very exciting for everyone out there.”
There are a few ways to support Josh and Iowa candidates today:
Contribute to the Hopium Winning Iowa fund which splits contributions evenly between Turek for Senate, Rob Sand for Governor, and the Iowa Democratic Party and its great Chair, Rita Hart.
We Asked 1,000 Iowans About Factory Farming. Here’s What We Learned.
The professor of political science remembers the neighbors emptying the waste from thousands of birds onto fields. She and her brother would break out into rashes.
An Independent voters organization co-founder and farm owner remembers his dad, who raised beef cattle and hogs, calling the smell of manure “the smell of money.” It was the smell that never seemed to wash off, off his hands, off his clothes.
For so many Iowans, factory farms color formative memories. And then there are the Iowans living this now: the polluted private wells and the cancer crisis, the neighbors and the workers, those fighting and campaigning for clean water and the companies themselves, and the people who make their living working for them.
The team at Sentient wanted to know what the state with the most factory farms and agricultural waste really thinks about the large-scale, industrial animal agriculture operations that have come to define Iowa. Factory farms, as they are often informally called, are more formally known and defined by regulators as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, or CAFOs. They are characterized by the large number of animals they house, as well as the pollution that shapes surrounding landscapes and water and air quality. These large systems also indirectly drive some of the row crop agriculture that can have other negative effects on the environment. And as the only nonprofit newsroom focused directly on factory farming, we wanted to see where people stand on these deeply entrenched systems.
So we asked them.
With the help of a company called SimpleOpinions, Sentient this spring conducted a 10-minute online survey of a representative sample of 1,051 Iowans about their opinions on factory farming and its role in shaping Iowa’s environment, economy and other facets of life.
Their answers show commonalities between people across the state, and help illustrate why water quality is becoming a defining issue of the upcoming election this fall. But they’re also riddled with contradictions. Some answers fall along expected party lines or demographic qualities like gender, geographic location and education level, but others don’t. Many Iowans aren’t sure how they feel — some because they’re of two minds about the issue, others because they’re ignorant of it.
So to make sense of the results, we sent the survey to professors, community groups and politicians running for and currently holding office at the state and federal level. Our outreach to state and federal leaders included contacting the press teams of gubernatorial candidates Rob Sand (Democrat; currently serving as Iowa state auditor) and Zach Lahn (Republican), Senate candidates Josh Turek (Democrat; currently serving in the Iowa House of Representatives) and Ashley Hinson (Republican; currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives), House of Representatives candidates Christina Bohannan (Democrat) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (incumbent Republican), candidates for secretary of agriculture Chris Jones (Democrat) and Mike Naig (incumbent Republican) and Iowa state Senator Catelin Drey (Democrat), whom Sentient has profiled. Lahn and Jones responded to requests for comment.
What we found is an Iowa at a unique moment in its history, with more of its citizens becoming aware of the vast power and environmental toll exerted by factory farming, and yet with many still unaware of or disengaged from that fact. It’s a moment that experts described as ripe for education and change.
Karen Kedrowski is the political scientist who would break out in hives as a kid, a professor at Iowa State University. She tells Sentient that the longer she lives in Iowa, the more she thinks it’s like the rest of the country. What is unique, she believes, is how attached Iowans can be to their homesteading origins.
“I think we are bound together by that sort of mythology, even though that is not really reflective of the reality of Iowa today,” she says.
The Key Findings
The average Iowan in the survey rated Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, or CAFOs, just below a five out of 10 (46.5 out of 100) when asked to give an overall favorability score. Forty-three percent of respondents scored them exactly five out of 10, meaning they were neither in favor of nor against them. A smaller number of respondents, in about equal numbers, have more polarized views in favor or against CAFOs.
Republican or Independent voters (and those who identify as Republican-leaning) generally show more support for CAFOs than Democrats, according to the survey. But the differences along party lines are only moderate. The average Republican voter gave CAFOs a favorability score of 51.1 out of 100, compared to 48.2 for Independents and 41.3 for Democrats. Gender is also important: women tend to show less support for CAFOs than men (other genders took part in numbers too small for the results to be reliable), and this effect remains after adjusting for the fact that women are more likely to vote Democrat.
David Peterson, a political science professor at Iowa State University, tells Sentient he had expected Iowans to view agriculture more positively, since it’s so important to the state. But the survey also revealed that many have seen, felt and smelt the consequences of CAFOs, with over half of those surveyed (53%) experiencing a drinking water advisory at some point. People who have experienced at least one negative effect from a CAFO — namely a drinking water advisory, contamination of a private well, livestock odors or manure runoff on their property — are, on the whole, less likely to support them.
Peterson has noticed that “concerns with water are really breaking through in this state,” which he says isn’t necessarily a partisan issue. Other public opinion research has substantiated that, with a Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future-commissioned survey of 800 Iowans from July of this year finding more than half each of Republicans, Independents and Democrats were concerned about water quality. In the Sentient survey, those who lacked confidence in the safety of their drinking water were also far less supportive of CAFOs.
These worries reflect wider health concerns about factory farming in Iowa. It has the second highest cancer rate of all US states — a fact that may be linked to agricultural pollution from pesticides or nitrates from manure runoff. Although it can be difficult to prove definitively that specific environmental factors cause cancer, evidence does suggest an association between nitrates in drinking water and the development of certain cancers.
The environmental and health impacts of factory farms touch everyone, says Katie Roth, co-founder of All Votes Count Iowa, an organization that advocates for Independent voters.
“I think universally, some of these issues that people are concerned about are really across the board. I don’t think they’re identified with Republicans or Democrats. I mean, who can not be concerned about rising cancer rates?” Roth tells Sentient.
Another strong predictor for support of CAFOs was the respondent’s degree of trust in regulators like the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. Those who trust the DNR ‘a lot’ to enforce environmental regulations on livestock facilities were far more likely to support CAFOs (62.2 favorability out of 100) than those who do not trust it at all (24.1).
What’s Behind Iowa’s “Neutral” Stance on Factory Farms?
While many Iowans appear to be on the fence about CAFOs — with 43% of people being exactly five out of 10 in favor — behind that are some mixed feelings.
There’s a recognition of the real environmental hazards, but also of the jobs and economic benefits they can bring in a state so centered on agriculture. Over a quarter of survey respondents (29%) said they believed industrial livestock operations were essential to Iowa’s economy and a further 22% said they were somewhat beneficial. People living within 10 miles of CAFOs were somewhat more positive about their economic role. And people with someone in their household working in the agriculture or food processing industries were more supportive of CAFOs in general, although only slightly (51.1 average favorability compared to 46.5 across all respondents).
“I think affordability is top of mind for a lot of people, and so the idea of cutting the ag[ricultural] economy down in some way makes people reluctant to push for changes,” Michael Schmidt, general counsel for the Iowa Environmental Council, tells Sentient. Schmidt doesn’t see a productive farm economy and a healthy environment as mutually exclusive. “But how we get there is not something that I think most people think about very much. And so then it’s kind of this split that they have in their mind.”
That split comes through in some respondents’ answers to open-ended questions about why they gave CAFOs a certain favorability score. “I know the benefits of [them] but I still am unsure of whether [they are] safe or not,” one survey taker wrote on factory farms. “They have benefits for some and provide jobs but diminish air quality,” wrote another.
A spokesperson for Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn writes to Sentient that “we can have clean water and a prosperous farm economy at the same time,” and that cleaning up Iowa’s water quality issues is one of the main reasons Lahn got into the race.
“It’s like looking at a forest that is dry, that’s just waiting for a match,” agricultural and antitrust expert Austin Frerick, author of the book Barons, tells Sentient. “This production model is directly impacting people’s lives in a negative way, and they feel it. At some point, someone’s going to come along and tap into it.”
Why So Many Iowans Just “Don’t Know”
Although many Iowans were ambivalent about CAFOs, plenty of others wrote that they simply didn’t have enough information about them to form an opinion. Those who live closer to CAFOs were, unsurprisingly, more likely to say they knew something about them — and tended to have stronger opinions either for or against. But about half of people overall (49%) considered themselves ‘not knowledgeable’ about CAFOs or had never heard of them.
When somebody responds that they “don’t know” or “aren’t sure” how they feel, data can’t always explain the reasoning behind that, says Andreas Jozwiak, an assistant professor at Grinnell College who studies comparative politics.
“We think in political science a lot about the median voter, and this means that that middle person, that pivotal vote, doesn’t know how they feel about this,” Jozwiak tells Sentient. He thinks that suggests “a lot of potential for political messaging to influence” how Iowans and Midwesterners broadly feel about CAFOs.
Democratic Iowa agriculture secretary candidate Chris Jones says it’s common at campaign events to have to define CAFOs to his audience. He says the system has been in Iowa for so long that many people have forgotten what was there before, what he describes as a smaller patchwork of pastoral animal farms.
“I’m trying to communicate these things effectively, and right now at this point in my life, a political campaign was the best way to do that,” Jones says.
It’s a gap that matches with survey respondents’ dissatisfied views on the media. A majority didn’t think local or national media adequately covers factory farms, with 25% saying local media coverage of nitrate pollution is adequate, and that number dropping to under 17% for national media. This contrasted with other environmental issues like road construction (58% thought local coverage is adequate) or water quality more generally (42%).
“I think that in the public debate about water quality, the people who are concerned about water quality have not drawn a clear line to the massive amount of waste — animal waste — that contributes to water quality issues,” says Kedrowski, noting that factory farms have been lumped into a broader category of agricultural practices. “I think that if they did, then you would begin to see more questioning.”
And not all those living with polluted water know it, either, says Diane Rosenberg, executive director of Iowa community education nonprofit Jefferson County Farmers and Neighbors. She pointed out that while the survey shows 23% of people have experienced private well contamination, which is often caused by manure runoff, only a small fraction of those wells are tested, according to research from the Iowa Environmental Council and Environmental Working Group.
Barb Kalbach, a retired nurse who has fought against CAFOs with the organization Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement, writes to Sentient that the survey matches her lived experience. She sees CAFOS playing a central part in the high nitrate levels in waterways, “but it has flown under most Iowans’ radars,” Kalbach writes.
But she thinks it’s possible that reality is changing, as water quality and cancer become prominent issues in the midterms — which Jozwiak says have potential to “reshuffle and reorient Iowa politics.” Multiple experts expressed a desire to see another round of survey questions, this time in the fall.
It’s a shift Jones has seen through his campaign. “I think there’s an increasing interest for sure. I mean, the fact that I have a chance of winning here tells you a lot,” Jones tells Sentient. “I think there is an awareness of the consequences of livestock production here in Iowa.”
“If people aren’t ready for a change now, I don’t know when it would be,” Jones says.
The latest What’s The Plan? call from Indivisible co-founders Ezra Levin and Leah Greenberg with special guest Erica Chenowith. The next #NoKings event is October 17.Find your local event.
“We are more organized, more prepared and more informed than we’ve ever been in understanding the nature of the autocratic playbook and how to confront it effectively. The mid-terms are the inflection point because they fall in that critical window of authoritarian consolidation, and because it’s another opportunity for civil society to turn out in record numbers, and to use this as an opportunity to elevate elected officials who will stand up for the fundamentals and norms of democracy, and vote out of office those who don’t.” – Erica Chenowith
I was going to review the most recent Iowa Press episode with Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann but you’ll have to go find it yourself. It’s easily findable right there on the Iowa Press website with all the other episodes. It is pretty fun but I will decline to post it here.
In one section, Kaufmann was salivating over the crappy, awful, horrible, over-the-top, attack ads that have been blanketing the media. (Have you seen the one where they try to link one of our congressional candidates to a murderous ax wielding guy in a dark parking lot)?
The ad strategy being that fallen away republicans, no-party voters and other viewers will be affected by scary ads that work on their brains in such a way that they disbelieve what they can see with their own eyes, how Republican policies have harmed Iowa, and instead they become fearful and vote again to give Republicans another chance… to do even more damage to our state.
Kaufmann basically said they are counting on the non-stop negative ads, the 4th district MAGA base, plus GOTV to minimize republican losses in the midterms.
Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register, ever so politely asked him if there was possibly a diminishing return after too many of this type of ad and whether he thinks voters are getting fed up with all the negative advertising on TV and in the media. Nope.
“…Negative advertising works and the statistics are very, very clear… get ready, Iowa, because you’re going to see a barrage of television ads. And until statistics tell us any different, I think that’s going to continue to be.” – Jeff Kaufmann
So they’re counting on three things: 1- the 4th district; 2- a gazillion dollars worth of non-stop ads trashing the democratic candidates, and activating the amygdalae (the part of the brain primarily responsible for managing fear) of voters; and 3- using that fear to jump start their GOTV strategy.
That’s what they have been doing for awhile and it has been working for the last ten or so years but we’ll see if it works this time around. It kind of seemed like he’s worried it’s not going to.
Enough about the Republicans. Iowa Democrats are back in the game.
Here is Rita Hart, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, who was on the Iowa Press program a week ago. She is an honest broker and has been an excellent chair. If you watch both episodes, notice the panel’s diggy, cynical questioning of Hart compared to their fawning flirtatiousness with Kaufmann. Seriously. No exaggeration. Go see for yourself.
This is the beginning of the final push toward the general election, with 37 days to go. Democratic victories are in the air, and the scent is intoxicating. But we can’t get drunk on victory until it actually materializes. Keep doing what you can to encourage friends and neighbors to vote.
In the meanwhile, there is important, non-election stuff to work on. Specifically, the Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have called for rule making to change how WOTUS (waters of the United States) is defined in the Clean Water Act. On Sept. 4, EPA posted notice of proposed rule making, and opened comments until Oct. 9. Rules aren’t decided, yet it is expected “intermittent waters” will change jurisdiction from federal to state and Tribal authorities. The Isaak Walton League has a direct action campaign regarding comments here.
The phrase “intermittent stream” seems self-explanatory. Importantly, such waterways are not necessarily insignificant. They may be dry for weeks or months and then carry a large volume of water during a storm. When that happens, it can transport nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment, bacteria and other pollutants downstream into larger tributaries and rivers. Transferring regulatory jurisdiction from Washington, D.C. to Iowa does not resolve that issue.
Senator Joni Ernst has been arguing for years that the federal government went too far in defining WOTUS in the Clean Water Act. She constantly focused on giving farmers, ranchers, and landowners more certainty about federal regulation of small streams, drainage, and other waters that may flow only intermittently or after rainfall.
Ernst favored narrowing the definition of federally protected waters and returning greater authority to the states, which aligns with this proposed rule change. The proposal as written could exclude most intermittent streams from federal jurisdiction.
I understand the desire among farmers, ranchers, and landowners for more regulatory certainty. The question raised by the rule making over whether intermittent streams and waterways are primarily local issues seems a legitimate one.
Yet another question deserves equal attention: What would happen if federal jurisdiction ends?
The answer offered by supporters of the change is that states and tribal authorities will have greater responsibility for protecting these waters. Everyone who believes Iowa would do a good job of that, stand on your head. Transferring jurisdiction is not the same as transferring the capacity to regulate, monitor, and enforce.
Iowa already has a water quality problem. Nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural land enter streams and rivers in the state. Concentrated animal feeding operations present another potential source of water pollution. Iowa has made investments in conservation and nutrient reduction, but its water quality agencies can only do so much.
Iowa DNR acknowledges on its website that the number of water quality assessments it can conduct is limited by budgets and staffing. If intermittent streams are added to Iowa’s regulatory workload, how will standards be enforced?
Iowa has a history with EPA, which previously identified deficiencies in Iowa’s administration of its federal concentrated animal feeding operation permitting program, including problems involving identification of facilities requiring permits and enforcement. While the state worked with EPA to correct the problems, that history does not mean Iowa’s present program is capable of adding new responsibilities without additional resources. It does mean that compliance with federal standards for water quality should not simply be assumed.
A key question in this rule making is whether someone will have the authority, resources and responsibility to protect intermittent streams and the downstream waters to which they are connected. How will EPA demonstrate that Iowa has the legal authority, monitoring capacity, staffing, and enforcement resources needed to regulate waters transferred from federal jurisdiction?
The question Iowa should be asking as this proposed change moves forward is how will the state protect our waters? Comments remain open until October 9.
New Documentary Featuring Daniel Ellsberg on the Increasing Danger of Nuclear War
Earlier this year, growing concerns about the increased potential for the use of nuclear weapons led the respected Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to move its Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight — the closest it has ever been to catastrophe.
AN ORDINARY INSANITY is a new 29-minute documentary featuring renowned whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg that provides a powerful wake-up call about the threat posed by nuclear weapons and what we can do to dramatically reduce the risk of global annihilation.
Before releasing the top-secret Pentagon Papers during the Vietnam War, Ellsberg served as a nuclear war planner with access to extensive classified information on U.S. nuclear strategy.
Filmed by Oscar-nominated director Judith Ehrlich a year before his death at age 92, Ellsberg speaks with clarity and urgency about the dangers we face: “A threat and a readiness and a preparation and a rehearsal of causing nuclear winter and destroying most large life on Earth, that is insane. You have to call it a kind of ‘ordinary insanity’ because it’s so widely shared.”
With ongoing conflicts heightening global nuclear tensions, and the recent end of the New START treaty raising concerns about a renewed arms race, An Ordinary Insanity arrives at a critical moment. The film will help to awaken broader public concern and action for arms control and nuclear disarmament agreements.
AN ORDINARY INSANITY was selected for screening at six international film festivals, winning Best Short Documentary at the Sydney World Film Festival. The film premiered at the United Nations Association Film Festival, where it was praised as a “film that will shock you and inspire hope.”
I recently wrote some friends, “I watch/listen to zero podcasts. Unbeknownst to me, this has become mainstream media consumed by hundreds of millions of people monthly.” In hindsight, I didn’t understand how “podcast” fit into the media landscape.
If I had a nickle for every time I read or heard the phrase “available wherever you get your podcasts,” I could afford a subscription to all their newsletters. There are indeed many podcasts, consumed by countless people around the world each month. Thing is, a podcast is one distribution form among many for what are known as “independent media enterprises.”
To explain what this means, let’s look at someone with whom many readers of this blog are familiar, Heather Cox Richardson. Letters From an American is Richardson’s signature daily publication, distributed through multiple channels. I get mine as an email from substack in what is usually the first email I receive each day. While she has a podcast of the letters, my long time email use is a habit in which I find comfort, and likely why I did not recognize her as a podcaster. Why would I?
Richardson is an individual expert in her field (history, teaching, and apparently, Maine lobster fishing). She developed her letters on Facebook and publishes them today in multiple channels that also include Substack, email, YouTube, Spotify, radio, Instagram, Bluesky, Threads, TikTok, and a website. There is more than just letters. She has series known as Politics Chat, American Conversations, 250 on 250, and the program she does with Paul Krugman called Lunch Money. All this suffices to call Richardson a media enterprise.
With the success of Letters From an American, she has been able to hire staff, yet at its core, she is independent, and that’s part of what makes her insights engaging. She is an example of an independent media enterprise.
Richardson is not the only one. Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist, left his job as an opinion writer for the New York Times, started on substack, then branched into other media. Mark Elias is an election law expert who represented Iowa Democratic Party chair Rita Hart when she lost her 2020 congressional race by six votes to Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Joyce Vance is a former U.S. Attorney, law professor, and legal analyst, whose Civil Discourse publication explains current events through legal and governmental knowledge. They all produce their work in multiple media. As you may know, there are many more.
The rise of independent media enterprises is directly related to decreasing amounts of news available from conventional sources. Readers of this blog should be well-familiar with the decline of newspapers since the turn of the century. Newspaper readership was reduced by more than half, advertising revenue dried up, independents exited the market through mergers, acquisitions, and going out of business. Hundreds of U.S. counties have become news deserts with the loss of local newspapers. The collapse of newspapers over 25 years created the economic and technological space for independent media enterprises. Mainstream news organizations consolidated and with fewer owners, and efficiencies of scale, there are fewer jobs for everyone, including the people who would venture into the new space of independent media enterprise. There are also fewer points of view.
I probably won’t be consuming a lot of podcasts, even after understanding how they fit in. Some people listen to them while doing other things, in fact, about half of the people I pass on the state park trail during my morning walks are plugged into earbuds, oblivious to nature around us (and to me). It is important to accept independent media enterprises as a thing because they may be our last, best hope for media delivering information useful to us in our daily lives. Don’t like podcasts? There is probably a different medium with the same information.
J.D. Scholten has announced he is not running for re-election in Iowa Statehouse District 1. But he is still out there fighting the good fight. Here is a conversation with Laura Belin.
Nathan Sage and Bob Leonard talk with Democratic candidate for Iowa Senate District 19, Zach Meacham from Pleasantville. Mecham says he is running to make progress for people with disabilities, get money out of politics and more. Iowa Senate District 19 covers all of Jasper County, a large portion of Marion County, and the western half of Mahaska County.
Governor Kim Keynolds: (515) 281-5211 U.S. Capitol Switchboard: (202) 224-3121 Iowa Members of Congress - Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) - Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) - Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) - Rep. Zach Nunn (R) Iowa US Senators - Senator Joni Ernst (R) - Senator Charles Grassley (R)