New Voters for Kerry
by Ruy Teixeira, Emerging Democratic Majority
A new Ipsos-AP analysis of their poll data shows new voters leaning very heavily toward Kerry.
Among
LVs (likely voters) who are new voters, Kerry is favored over Bush by a
smashing 25 points, 60-35. Moreover, these new voters were twice as
likely to say they'd been contacted by the Kerry campaign (38 percent)
than by the Bush campaign (16 percent).
The Ipsos-AP analysis provides this sketch of new voters' demographics and political attitudes:
New
voters tend to be young (64% are under 35), unmarried (54%), with some
college experience (36%) and holding down a full-time job (63%), often
in the service sector or skilled trades. They say the country is
heading in the wrong direction (68%) and disapprove of Bush’s
performance as [pseudo-]pResident (63%) and his handling of Iraq (65%),
in particular.
Obviously, the more of these voters that show up at the polls on November 2, the better for John Kerry.
Bush's Battleground Bluesby Ruy Teixeira, Emerging Democratic Majority
A few days ago, I highlighted some recent polls that showed solid leads for Kerry in the battleground states as a whole, states that were split about evenly between Gore and Bush four years ago.
Since then, Democracy Corps has released new data
showing more of the same (a 7 point lead for Kerry in the battleground
states). And Mystery Pollster looks at a substantially wider range of
recent polls and finds Kerry's battleground performance running ahead
of his national performance in every single one. As Chris Bowers points
out over at MyDD, these data show Kerry averaging a 49-45 advantage in
the battleground.
And, not to pile on, but check the latest unemployment data from the battleground states. Not a pretty picture, by and large, for BC04: Wisconsin and Iowa show increases in their unemployment rates in the last month and Ohio's remains stubbornly high at 6 percent.
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