Election Prospects for Republicans and Democrats in the November 2018 Elections

by Ralph Scharnau

The upcoming 2018 United States elections will mainly occur on November 6. These midterm elections include races at the local, state, and federal levels. Nationwide all House seats and a third of those in the Senate will be up for election.

At the moment, Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. What are the chances that the Republican dominated House and Senate could be flipped into the Democratic column during the 2018 fall election cycle? A number of factors come into play here, and the outcomes are far from clear.

Polling conducted in the middle of January asking respondents about their preferences in the November congressional elections showed that Democrats held leads over Republicans ranging from a few percentage points to double digits. In the highly respected Pew Research Center poll of all registered voters, 53 percent said they support or lean toward the Democratic Party as opposed to only 39 percent for the Republicans. The Democrats also did well among African Americans (88 percent), Hispanics (67 percent) and women (55 percent). Democrats also received strong support from the young, those between the ages of 18 and 49.

Mobilizing this Democratic Party base remains the key to electoral victories.

Ralph Scharnau is a retired professor of U.S. History.   He holds a Ph.D. from Northern Illinois University.  His teaching career at public and private higher education institutions has spanned some fifty years.  His publications include articles on labor history in Iowa and Dubuque.  Scharnau, a peace and justice activist, writes monthly op-ed columns for the Dubuque Telegraph Herald.

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