A Culver-Roberts Match-up for Iowa Governor

“Culver has
a strong statewide organization, significant financial resources and a
Democratic voter registration advantage. These things matter in
politics.”

Back in July 2009, I indicated that of the Republican candidates for governor in the June primary, the one to watch is Rod Roberts of Carroll. He is “all in,” having announced he will not seek re-election in the Iowa House so he can run for governor. While June is still distant in political terms and others lead him in the polls in comparisons with Governor Chet Culver; Roberts shouldn’t be counted out yet. Of the three remaining Republicans, Roberts seems to this writer to have the best chances of defeating incumbent Governor Chet Culver, if nominated by his party.

While Culver has been beleaguered by poor showings in polls, turnover in his campaign staff, noise from progressive radio talk show host Ed Fallon and a primary challenge from former Des Moines school board member John Narcisse, it seems inevitable that Chet Culver will receive his party’s nomination and win the 2010 election. He has a strong statewide organization, significant financial resources and a Democratic voter registration advantage. These things matter in politics. In a Culver-Branstad or Culver-Vander Plaats match-up, these basic elements of the Culver campaign would come into play and, despite the early polls and corporate media coverage would likely result in a second term for the incumbent governor.

A Culver-Roberts match-up might be a different story. Roberts has the credentials to attract the conservative Republican base. At the same time, his pragmatic approach to issues, like the Smoke-Free Iowa Act, indicates Roberts’ ability to appeal to moderates. Pulling together the Republican base and a substantial proportion of moderate Republicans and independents is the only path to a Republican governor in 2011. Roberts is best positioned to do this as Vander Plaats seems too extreme and Branstad offers nothing new.

It seems doubtful that Rod Roberts will make it through the June primary because of the strength of his two primary opponents. The current Republican activism may have led House Minority Leader Kraig Paulsen to say, “the trend lines clearly indicate this should be a strong year for Republicans” on Iowa Press last Friday. At the same time, while the fall campaign will be challenging, Culver will likely prevail in the gubernatorial race because of the strength of his organization against a likely match-up with a former governor.

That former governor has little to offer except a “back to the future” visage behind which are popular talking points articulated by a corporate media intent on gaining viewership or selling newspapers. This election will be about real people and real issues, and not about the chimera of a right wing resurgence being popularized by politicians and other folks who are out of touch with what is important to the majority of Iowans.

Governor Culver, get your game on and fast, because if Roberts is out, the stars are aligning in your favor and the 2010 election will be yours to lose.

~Paul Deaton is a native Iowan living in rural Johnson County.  Check
out his blog, Big Grove Garden.
   E-mail Paul Deaton