Copenhagen Talks Extended to the Weekend

The Final Day

Update:  TALKS JUST EXTENDED TO THE WEEKEND

So much has happened while so little real progress has been made.

Obama’s speech essentially reiterated the US’s already stated position – mitigation commitments by all major economies, transparency by both developing and developed countries alike and $10 billion in the short term, $100 billion in the long-term by 2020 for climate finance. The speech was primarily directed at the Chinese. The president didn’t say anything new. The 17% number has not moved and he didn’t specify what the US contribution would be to the climate finance fund. In talking with journalist and delegates from developing countries, that’s exactly what they wanted to hear. The speech is being interpreted as take it or leave, which may play well with the domestic audience but has not gone over well here.

After the speech Obama met with Chinese president Wen Jenbao, no word on the outcome. Ban Ki-Moon just asked requested to extend the conference into the weekend. This could mean two things – we are close to an agreement but leaders need some more time or not enough progress has been made on the last day.  This meeting with 193 representatives from each country and over 100 heads of state in attendance is becoming a bi-lateral meeting between China and the US. For all we know right now, the Chinese have not agreed to the American proposal.

There’s a draft text that was leaked early this morning that shows how far apart from consensus countries really are. Very, very troubling.

It’s late afternoon here in Copenhagen, there was a scheduled signing ceremony for 3pm. Everyone is still waiting, still guessing as to what will happen. The pessimism is growing.

The scene inside the Bella Center is frenetic. Hundreds of journalists are all trying to piece this puzzle together. You find TV cameras stalked outside meeting rooms, where they don’t know who’s inside, but whomever they are they want that quintessential shot.

On the final day the process of negotiations have moved from talks between delegates to direct communication between heads of states. As I write this, President Obama is in talks with other leaders over the remaining unresolved issues. Cnn’s Ed Henry tweeted that President Obama has scuttled his schedule and is in a meeting with Ethiopia (representing China) Russia, South Africa, India, Mexico, Spain, South Korea, Norway and Columbia. Accompanying President Obama to Copenhagen is a renewed sense of optimism for the prospects of success at COP15.

We know where the fault lines lie. Essentially where we were two weeks ago – emission cuts that would limit temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius by 2020, climate finance and if developed countries like China, India and Brazil will agree to a system of international monitoring and verification. Whatever form of the final deal, it must include a nod towards or even a better, a specific timeline or deadline for a legally binding agreement.

What do we know now in the eleventh hour? These types of talks will proceed in the future on a two-track process – a Kyoto Protocol track and a long-term cooperative agreement track. The G-77 favors the KP route, while the US along with other developed countries tried and failed to remove the Kyoto negotiating process from the Copenhagen proceedings. We know that China can nix any final deal it doesn’t approve of but, that the Chinese position has slightly softened. That African nations long distrustful of the US in these types of proceedings effectively elevated their issues and concerns in Copenhagen. And that President Obama will have to charm and cajole this international body forward or risk another major embarrassment in Copenhagen.

No one, I mean no one really knows that the outcome of all of this will be. However most are hoping for success.

Simeon Talley is a student at the University of Iowa studying International Politics.  Check out Simeon's blog for more updates from Copenhagen.