by Simeon Talley

Monday’s major news was a group of African nations walking out on negotiations and in dramatic fashion – late in the evening hour – chose to come back to the negotiating table. Last week it was reported that the Danish government had met with a group of rich nations including the US outside of the formal process and agreed to a draft “text” – a text that could eventually become the agreement that the Copenhagen conference produces. Several poor nations were angered by what they perceived as a backdoor deal that favored rich nations. The mood has been sour and souring ever since, culminating in today’s walkout.

The walkout by African nations would have made a Copenhagen deal impossible and it reflects long held divisions. Organized as the G-77, developing nations want developed nations to commit to 40-45% emissions reductions from 1990 levels by 2020. And if you’ve been following international negotiations at all, you know that developed countries so far committed, have committed to considerably less. The US’s commitment to 17% reduction from 2005 levels by 2020, is estimated to be only a 3-4% reduction from 1990 CO2 levels. And hell is more likely to freeze over before a change in US position.

G-77 countries want more ambition by way of emission reductions and adaptation financing. So far, developed countries haven’t budged. The US still hasn’t committed to a specific amount it will pay towards climate financing, funds to help poor countries adapt to the negative effects of climate change. With one week to go and only two days until heads of state start to roll in, negotiators have to find a way to reach consensus in order for the Copenhagen conference to have a positive outcome.

China, as a developing nation, is also a part of the G-77 grouping. But this morning’s report of impasse over verification, shows the complexity of China’s status as a poor developing nation and continued differences with the US.

In many respects, poorer nations and nations closest to actual climate disaster like small-island states, are playing a moral role in negotiations. The country of Tuvalu – a small-island state only two meters above sea level – has repeatedly called on rich nations (read the US) to do more. The president made an impassioned plea to conference delegates to agree to a binding deal, which limits the amount of CO2 to the levels the IPCC has said, is needed. Such a deal is likely out of reach at this point.

An EU Commissioner characterized the atmosphere as “frozen.”  And that’s a fairly accurate description of where we stand currently.