ONE LAST GLOBAL WARMING WARNING
From the New York Times ….March 5, 2006, Comes this article entitled : “WARM, WARMER, WARMEST”
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
“One of the hottest environmental battles has been over oil drilling in
the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but the sad
reality is that much of the Arctic plain will probably be lost anyway
in this century to rising sea levels. That should be our paramount
struggle: TO STOP GLOBAL WARMING. It threatens not only the Arctic
plain, but also low-lying areas around the world with 100 million
inhabitants. And it could be accelerating because of the three scariest
words in climate science: positive feedback loops.
“Bear with me now: a positive feedback loop occurs when a small change
leads to an even larger change of the same type. For example, a modest
amount of warming melts ice in northern climates. But the bare ground
absorbs three times as much heat as ground covered by snow or ice, so
the change amplifies the original warming. Even more ice melts, more
heat is absorbed, and the spiral grows… perhaps the biggest single
source of uncertainty about whether Lower Manhattan will be underwater
in 2100 has to do with the glaciers of Greenland. If Greenland's ice
sheet melted completely, that alone – over centuries – would raise the
oceans by 23 feet. And those glaciers are dumping much more water into
the oceans than they did a decade ago, according to two satellite
surveys just published, but the studies disagree on the amounts…
“The Arctic permafrost may hold 14 percent of the world's carbon, but
as it melts, some of its carbon dioxide and methane are released,
adding to the amount of greenhouse gases. So more permafrost melts.
Likewise, millions of years ago, warming oceans with vast amounts of
methane in their depths had great episodes of methane belching, which
added to the greenhouse effect then. I don't expect the oceans to burp
in the same massive way tomorrow, but if they did, no one would know
how to fit those unmannerly oceans into a climate model.
Part of the challenge in modeling climate is that we're already off the
charts with greenhouse gases like nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and
methane. “We've driven them out of the range that has existed for the
last one million years,” noted JAMES HANSEN, NASA's top climate expert.
“And the climate has not fully responded to changes that have already
occurred.”
“In fairness, there are also negative feedback loops, which could
dampen change. For example, warmer temperatures could mean more snow
over Antarctica, implying an initial buildup of the Antarctic ice
sheet. The added ice could slow global warming and rising sea levels.
But a new study just published in SCIENCE EXPRESS says that the
Antarctic ice sheet is already thinning significantly – raising more
alarms and casting doubt on that negative feedback. In any case, it's
clear that negative feedback loops in climatology are much less common
than positive loops, which amplify change and leave our climate both
unstable and vulnerable to human folly…GLOBAL WARMING MAY ULTIMATELY BE
THE GREATEST TEST WE FACE AS STEWARDS OF OUR PLANET. AND SO FAR WE'RE
FAILING CATASTROPHICALLY.
“Historians of science will be brutal on us,” said Jerry Mahlman, a
climate expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “WE ARE
RIGHT NOW IN A STATE OF DEEP DENIAL ABOUT HOW SEVERE THE PROBLEM
IS. Political people are saying, 'Well, it's not on my
watch.' They're ducking for cover, because who's going to tell the
American people? We know what to do: energy conservation, gas taxes and
carbon taxes, more renewable energy sources like wind and solar power…
But our political system is paralyzed in the face of what may be the
single biggest challenge to our planet.
“Are we an intelligent species or not?” Dr. Mahlman asked. “Right now, the evidence is against it.”
I SAY TIME FOR ACTION…LET'S GET ON WITH IT… CPR…CONSERVE/PARTICIPATE/RECYCLE
Blog For Iowa 