Bush Belly-flops on Social Security Destruction Scheme

George
W. Bush's plan to remake the Social Security system is kaput. This is
not a value judgment. It's a statement of political fact. In the months
since [Bush] first presented the idea as his top domestic
priority, Democrats in Congress have unexpectedly unified in opposition
to any reform based on private accounts. Several Republican senators
whose votes would be needed for passage are resisting private accounts
as well. And public opinion, which has never favored any form of
privatization, is trending even more strongly against Bush's scheme. At
this point, there's just no way that [Bush] can finagle enough
votes to win.



This
means that Bush is about to suffer — and is actually in the midst of
suffering — his first major political defeat. After passing all his most
important first-term domestic priorities (a tax cut, an
“education-reform” bill, domestic security legislation, another tax cut),
Bush faces a second term that is beginning with a gigantic rebuke: A
Congress solidly controlled by his own party is repudiating his top
goal. It's precisely what happened to Bill Clinton, when Congress
rejected his health-care reform proposal in 1993. As the Clinton
example shows, such a setback doesn't doom an administration. But how
Bush handles the defeat is likely to be a decisive factor in
determining whether he accomplishes any of the other big-ticket items
on his agenda.



The
first question to ask is whether Bush can face up to defeat. Not
whether he can acknowledge defeat publicly: [Bush is reluctant to
graciously admit his screw-ups.] The issue is whether Bush can
acknowledge to
himself that he's belly-flopped on Social Security. If he can't, the
endgame is likely to be fairly ugly for the GOP. Bush will expend more
political capital twisting the arms of senators in a fruitless cause.



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