Fourth Straight Month of Job Growth for Iowa

Unemployment Rate at
12-Year High as Growing Numbers Seek
Work


MOUNT VERNON, Iowa [Nov. 18, 2004] –
Iowa posted its fourth-straight monthly increase in nonfarm jobs in October as
growing numbers of Iowans sought work in an economy that remains in a sluggish
recovery.



October figures from Iowa Workforce
Development (IWD) also showed the fourth-straight monthly increase in the
unemployment rate, from 4.7 percent to a 12-year high of 4.8 percent, but Iowa
economists said the increase could be due to growing numbers of people in the
labor market.



“There's mixed news in these
numbers, just not enough to be celebrating or to be alarmed,” said Elaine
Ditsler, research associate for the Iowa Policy Project (IPP). “We have to keep
a long-term perspective in viewing monthly job numbers, and despite some recent
gains, we still are well off pace for a recovery from a 3-year-old
recession.”



IPP Executive Director David
Osterberg noted the one-month growth of 5,100 in the labor force number, to
1,635,100 in October  which also is up 26,700 from 1,608,400 a year
earlier.



“When people are looking for work, it's
a sign that they have growing confidence in the economy, and that is helping to
drive the higher unemployment rate. More than the monthly numbers, the important
thing to understand is that our economy needs to deliver quality jobs for those
people,” Osterberg said. “We still have not gotten back to where we were in
March 2001, when the last recession started. I'm looking forward to the day when
I don't have to say that.”



The 3,300-job increase
in October follows a 900-job increase in September, and leaves the job number
8,200 above the October 2003 figure. The latest job figure, however, remains
19,300 jobs behind the March 2001 number, at the start of the last
recession.



At 4.8 percent, Iowas unemployment
rate is up from 4.6 percent in October 2003, and is at a post-recession peak,
compared with 4.7 percent last month and in July 2003. The Iowa unemployment
rate has not been this high since July 1992.



The
largest single increase for October came in trade and transportation employment,
with an 1,200 increase that offset a 500-job decline in September. Manufacturing
rose by 400 jobs in the month, and while it as its highest level in the year, it
is 25,200 below the March 2001 level, a decline of about 10 percent. Education
and health services fell 200 in October and government employment fell by
600.



Key numbers following Thursday's release
from the state:



 – The unemployment
rate rose from 4.7 percent in September to 4.8 percent in October. In October
2003, the rate was 4.6 percent.



 – The labor force rose over the month from 1,630,000 to 1,635,100
 people working or looking for work. The figure is up by 26,700 from a year
earlier.



 – Total nonfarm employment
rose from 1,451,600 to 1,454,900, an increase of 3,300 jobs.




 – The nonfarm employment number is
up 8,200 from October 2003, but is 19,300 below the level of March 2001, at the
start of the last recession.



 – From
June 2003 to October 2004, 44,200 jobs were supposed to have been created in
Iowa under the federal Jobs & Growth tax cut; that plan has fallen 24,600
jobs short in Iowa. To meet the goals of that program, Iowa would have to gain
15,100 jobs in November and again in December, in comparison to the 3,300
increase in October.


 IPP reports about job and
income trends are on the web at http://www.iowapolicyproject.org. The Iowa
Policy Project is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization based in
Mount Vernon.