Bush's Alleged Heart Skips Beat at Lack of Post-convention Bounce
by Ruy Teixeira, AlterNet.org
The new
Gallup poll, conducted entirely after the GOP convention and therefore
the first poll that truly measures Bush's bounce, shows Bush with a
very small bounce indeed: two points, whether you look at registered
voters (RVs) or likely voters (LVs).
Note
also that Bush's two-point bounce from his convention (which is defined
as the change in a candidate's level of support, not in margin) is the
worst ever received by an incumbent president, regardless of party, and
the worst ever received by a Republican candidate, whether incumbent or
not. In 2000, Bush received an eight-point bounce. And even his hapless father received a five-point bounce in 1992.
In terms
of whether the Republican convention made voters more or less likely to
vote for Bush – the real point of the convention after all – there were
almost as many saying the convention made them less likely to vote for
Bush (38 percent) as said it made them more likely (41 percent).
This is
actually quite a poor performance. The Democratic convention this year
had a substantially better 44 percent more likely/30 percent less
likely split. In fact, looking back to 1984, which is as far back as
Gallup supplies data, no candidate has ever had a more likely to vote
for/less likely to vote for split even close to as bad as Bush's this
year.
Seriously,
this article is FABulous. Teixeira totally dissects the Time and
Newsweek polls that the media seem to be so stuck on to “prove” that
their Führer got that big bounce. Click here to read the rest of the article.
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