As I was conducting a year-end review of Blog for Iowa, I noted with interest that our most read post in 2023 was KCCI Interview Exposes Reynolds’ Deeply Flawed Voucher Plan with 2,542 views.  Could this be a harbinger of spring in the winter of Iowa politics? A shift from redder than red to blue?  Is the proverbial pendulum swinging back?

Here are some predictions for 2024 from myself and Blog for Iowa co-editors, Paul Deaton and Dave Bradley.

First, I predict Reynolds’ school voucher bill and turning back federal funds for food for low income kids will be the death knell for her tenure as governor.

Second, I predict at least two Republican members of congress from Iowa will not retain their seats. Not going out on a limb but Democrats have some very strong candidates and despite all the media poll talk, this could easily be one of those years (again) where nobody really knows what’s going to happen.

Third, I’m betting on Joe Biden. I’m betting on Jack Smith and Fani Willis. I’m betting on the silent majority of American people. I’m betting on a win for Democracy in 2024.

Paul Deaton:  I predict young voters will definitely not sit this election out despite whatever issues they have with Washington politicians. They will turnout in large numbers for Democratic candidates. Same with female voters motivated by Trump’s setting up the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade. They will swing Democratic.

Dave Bradley:  Young voters will come out for Biden in big numbers as will women. Dobbs v. Jackson will serve as a real starting point for many women. Add in the horrors of what is happening in places like Texas and Ohio where women are nearly dying or being charged with crimes for a miscarriage. I think this will drive record number of women to the polls to regain their rights. I think this will carry down the ballot even to state house races where Republicans will be hard pressed to defend their positions. I am thinking Feenstra may be the only R left in the US House for Iowa.

Seems to me the media has taken the effect of the Dobbs decision lightly despite what Kansas and Ohio told them as they try to help republicans

There will be a lot of stories to finish that are left over from 2023:

First I have a feeling that Trump will have a major medical situation. Recent appearances have been rather unhinged indicating he is not hitting on all cylinders. I see the Republican Party imploding whether Trump is ill of not. Too many down ballot candidates will see their far-right agendas being very unpopular so they will be damned if they stick with Trump or damned if they don’t.

Second, there will have to be some resolutions to Trump’s various legal issues. I suspect his losing streak will continue and at some point he will be convicted and a jail sentence imposed. The 14th amendment case and the “presidential immunity” cases will be heard by SCOTUS and Trump will lose both in divided decisions. (My guess Roberts, Boofer, possibly Gorsuch joining the liberals).

Inflation will continue to fall and the Fed will back down interest. The economy stays good as Biden’s policy of funneling money to the middle and bottom continues to pay dividends.

Republicans try once again to shut down the government and are met with massive resistance from voters.

All the Republican shenanigans plus a good Biden economy and decent paying jobs lead to a very blue wave in November.

Iowa’s women win NCAAA title. Caitlin Clark MVP. Stuelke and Martin all Big 10 selections.  Europe helps Ukraine fend off Russia until Republicans relent on funding. Mike Johnson thrown out as Speaker.

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And there you have it.  Happy New Year to all our faithful followers!