Democrats are playing to their strong suit during the final days leading into the 2010 midterm elections. With a voter registration advantage and a tested ground game, Democrats are expected to hold their own. Blog for Iowa will be out in the community, working the get out the vote effort this weekend, like progressives across the state. The election is a choice for our vision of the future of Iowa, and what we contribute between now and the election will make a difference, regardless of the final results of this election.

Blog for Iowa reads polling data and has been a fan of Nate Silver and his fivethirtyeight.com. His extensive modeling algorithms helped us understand the 2008 campaign as it developed. The closer we got to the election, the more the model resembled the election results. Even though Silver sold out to the New York Times, we should look at his polling data analysis as a key indicator.

Fivethirtyeight.com shows incumbents winning all five congressional seats in Iowa. Overall, Silver shows Democrats with a 17% chance of retaining the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. His model predicts a House comprised of 203 Democrats and 232 Republicans. Democratic chances of winning the five Iowa House seats as follows:  Bruce Braley 97%, Dave Loebsack 87%, Leonard Boswell 67%, Bill Maske <1% and Matt Campbell <1%, according to Silver.

The race is not over, and we have solid candidates in the 4th and 5th districts in Maske and Campbell. We hope they can work the ground game to eke out a victory, despite the polling. Braley, Loebsack and Boswell have not won the race, and need every bit of help they can get between now and the election to get out the Democratic votes needed to win.

In the U.S. Senate race, the polling has favored the incumbent since the beginning. In Roxanne Conlin, Democrats have found the most viable candidate fielded against Senator Grassley in many years. Conlin recognized the nature of her challenge and focused on the ground game early. She met with voters in all 99 counties, and activated Democrats to work on her campaign across the state. While Silver gives Conlin <1% chance of winning, Blog for Iowa believes she can eke out a victory based on the strength of her message, the Democratic ground game and the voter registration edge. Overall, Silver shows Democrats retaining control of the United States Senate with 52 Senators in their caucus.

The movement to change Iowa from being a long time Republican State began for most people during the 1998 campaign that elected Tom Vilsack as governor. The author remembers talking to some Iowa Republicans during that campaign. They were residents of Western Iowa, small business owners, and lifelong Republicans. It was the Republican party of Jim Ross Lightfoot that turned their household Democratic. The only thing that has changed since then is people have aged and the Republican party has moved significantly to the right. Going backwards, to a new Branstad administration, will not bring former Republicans back into the their party.

If the polling indicates there will be no significant change in who Iowa sends to the 112th Congress, the election is not over until the polls close, so please take some time this weekend to volunteer to help the effort. It will make a difference.

After the election, progressives will continue the work we have started to make Iowa a better place for every resident. It began more than a decade ago and it is work that will never be finished. Progressives are in it for the long run.