“Fivethirtyeight.com gives Roxanne Conlin a 70% chance of winning the June primary and Tom Fiegen and Bob Krause each a 15% chance of winning. It is still early, but it is difficult to see how Fiegen and Krause can muster the necessary votes to win against Grassley.“

If you haven’t been following the political pollster Nate
Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com you should take
a look. During the run-up to the 2008 election, fivethirtyeight.com was the
only site whose polling was consistent with the actual election
results. Following this site was the only way I could rest during that election
cycle.

Silver has been analyzing the 2010 U.S. Senate races, and
his current polling indicates that the Republicans will net four seats. The
most likely conversions from Democratic to Republican are North Dakota,
Arkansas, Delaware and Indiana, according to Silver. Things could happen to
change that, Republicans could win more and there is even a 7 percent that
Democrats will return to a 60 vote majority. A lot depends on the variables of
the election as we finish the primary season. As we all know, polling changes
as voters engage in the election as its date nears.

Fivethirtyeight.com ranks Senator Chuck Grassley as a “safe”
seat, indicating there is a 98% chance that Grassley will win. The site gives
Roxanne Conlin a 70% chance of winning the June primary and Tom Fiegen and Bob Krause each a 15%
chance of winning. It is still early, but it is
difficult to see how Fiegen and Krause can muster the necessary votes to win
against Grassley. This is particularly true considering their recently
disclosed tepid fund raising ability and an inability to generate much
excitement around their campaigns in the corporate media. Of the three
Democrats in the primary, only Conlin stands a reasonable chance of unseating Iowa’s
senior senator.

The author got to know Conlin during the 2007-2008
presidential races when she was co-chair of the John Edwards campaign in Iowa. During
her public appearances in 2010, she has reflected what was strongest about
Edwards’ policies, in her own way. While many Iowans of my generation recognize the name
Roxanne Conlin, younger voters may not. She recently completed her 99 counties “Fight
to Fix It” tour and that may have been a beginning. There will be substantial
work ahead for Conlin’s name to be recognized by a majority of voters.
Even if she wins the primary, Conlin would have a difficult time matching the
name recognition Grassley has garnered during his long time in the Senate.

2004 Grassley challenger Art Small showed up at a coffee I
attended at Hy-Vee this week. It brought back the memories of his campaign and his
catchy slogan, “Think Big, Vote Small.” I also recall the October 22, 2004
debate on Iowa Press when Roger Yepsen of the Des Moines Register asked, “Mr. Small, why haven’t you and the Democrats
run a better campaign? You have waged what is essentially a token effort here.
Your money is far less than Senator Grassley’s. People don’t know who you are.
Why haven’t you and the Democratic Party given Iowans a better choice?”

We talked about
things other than Art’s 2004 defeat over coffee. He had $50,000 in personal debt
after the race and put his campaign up for sale on eBay. Of all the Democrats in Iowa, only he was willing to put his life on hold to challenge the incumbent.
For that, he deserves our respect. The thing is if we don’t learn from the Art
Small campaign, then what kind of progressive movement are we?

The picture is
becoming increasingly clear from her fund raising, her 99 county campaign and
from polling data like fivethirtyeight.com that Roxanne Conlin stands the best
chance of defeating the five term incumbent. Progressives should keep their
eyes on the prize. While we respect the efforts of Krause and Fiegen, if we are
serious about winning the U.S. Senate seat, Roxanne Conlin has emerged as our only
viable option.

~Paul
Deaton is a native Iowan living in rural Johnson County and weekend
editor of Blog for Iowa. He is also a member of Iowa Physicians for
Social Responsibility and Veterans for Peace. E-mail Paul
Deaton