I stress the word “could” because if we’ve learned anything in the past year, it is that no legislation is a sure thing.  Speaker Pelosi, however, feels confident enough in her whip count that she is ready to schedule a vote by Friday or Saturday of this week.

Health care reform’s final passage will be a combination of asking members of the House of Representatives to pass the Senate version of the bill, while simultaneously passing a series of amendments dealing with the bill’s financing, that would then be volleyed back to the Senate to pass through a reconciliation process that only requires a simple majority of fifty-one votes. So long as the Senate is honestly gauging their whip count, by next Monday, rather than posting a blog, I’m just going to post clip art of champagne, balloons, confetti, smiley faces and dancing figures.

And now that we are at the end game, it’s important to resist the temptation to look back at this point and figure out why something like the desire to provide health care access to all of a nation’s citizens should have conjured up so much controversy. At an interfaith forum on health care reform late last year, two of the panelists rightly agreed that the debate we had been having throughout 2009 brought out more heat than light. But whatever compromises are in the final outcome, the significance of having passed a health care overhaul will mean an awful lot for both improving on the bill’s flaws as we move forward, as well as for moving any other legislation over the rest of Obama’s tenure as President.

So let me talk now about the parts of the bill that most affect labor. The forty percent excise tax on benefits in the Senate version stands out as the most egregious flaw of the bill.  However, the version going through reconciliation would reduce the effect that will have on working families by eighty percent. The reconciled bill would delay implementation of the tax until 2018. This is only fair since implementing it any earlier would undermine the negotiated agreements currently in place – at the expense to both workers and employers. By delaying implementation until 2018, not only is there an opportunity to re-visit financing of the health care bill, but even if left untouched, the delay gives workers and employers the opportunity to negotiate future contracts based on the impact of such an enormous tax.

The reconciled bill also resets the excise tax threshold at $27,500 for family coverage and $10,200 for individual plans, exempting many working families. The threshold excludes vision and dental benefits and is adjusted higher if age and gender of workforce increases costs. Finally, the threshold will be adjusted if costs outpace projected increases.

Because these modifications reduce revenue from the excise tax from $116 billion to $33 billion over ten years, the reconciled version pays for reform by increasing the Medicare tax on tax payers earning over $200,000 (families over $250,000) per year. It would also for the first time put a Medicare tax on unearned income.

There is no employer mandate to provide coverage, but there will be penalties for employers with greater than fifty full-time employees. For employers in the building trades, the number being negotiated right now is five full-time employees and payroll of $250,000 or more. The penalty for employers not providing health care benefits is increased to $2000 per worker up from $750 in the current Senate version.

For retirees, the bill would get rid of the doughnut hole that hung seniors out to dry when it came to paying for their prescription costs.

The deal with Nebraska is gone (take that Blue-Dog Bill Nelson!) And by some accounts, there’s a chance for a public option to re-emerge.  

It improves on federal funding to states to offset costs of Medicaid – currently a heavy burden for states and retains qualification for Medicaid for those up to 133% of poverty level. For moderate – income earners, the subsidy will be increased for individuals and families up to four times poverty level. It also puts a cap on out-of-pocket costs so illness won’t bankrupt families anymore. And for working families who are moderate to higher end wage earners, there are subsidies available so your premium for employer-provided coverage will never be more than 9.8% of income.

The bill permits states to establish a single-payer system for themselves – something people in progressive states may want to start work on at a much-smaller scale – remember women’s enfranchisement only happened after a critical mass of states already allowed women the right to vote.

The fight for comprehensive health care reform has gone on for decades. It’s absolutely senseless to toss out the current version because it fails to please everyone. The last time comprehensive health care reform was attempted was in 1992. If reform fails again, are we willing to wait until 2028 to revisit it? Compounding the current rate of health insurance premium increases – which were anywhere from ten to sixty percent this year – and you‘ll soon realize that doing nothing is not an option, that is unless you’re ok with becoming a third-world nation.