Battleground: Iowa
By David Moberg, Salon.com
[Iowa's
Gov. Tom] Vilsack is optimistic about Kerry's chances in his state.
“It's all in the numbers in the early voting and registration war,” he
said. Iowa is divided into roughly three equal parts politically, but
independents have the edge in registration. In 2000, there were about
25,000 fewer registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, but
this year Republicans lead by only 8,000. Part of the reason is
changing demographics – Iowa is now less rural and more Latino.
“We've
become more competitive as Iowa has become more urbanized,” Iowa
Democratic Party chairman Gordon Fischer said. “Now the 10 most
populous counties – with cities like Des Moines, Sioux City, Cedar
Rapids, Waterloo and Iowa City – have more population than the … 89
[least populous] counties.”
Most
of the voters registered by the party and partisan groups such as
unions, the Iowa Citizen Action Network (an affiliate of USAction) and
America Coming Together (the leading independent “527” group) are
likely to vote for Kerry. But the work of some nonpartisan groups may
also indirectly benefit him. The New Voters Project, for example, has
registered 36,000 18-to-24-year-olds in Iowa, including 12,000 around
Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa and the third largest New
Voters Project operation in the country. “We've been getting an amazing
response from young people,” said organizer Aaron Saeugling. “A lot of
people said, 'I didn't vote in the last election, but I am this year.'”
Although 70 percent registered as independent, a study by Harvard
University's Institute of Politics suggests they will
disproportionately vote for Kerry.
The
Democratic forces in Iowa have pushed harder than the Republicans for
early votes, in both absentee ballots and satellite early polling
stations, and the balloting has gone strongly to Kerry. Late last week,
Democrats figured that at least 108,000 out of 190,000 early votes went
for Kerry, since they came from identified supporters, and 56,000 went
for Bush, with the remainder probably split roughly in the same
proportion. With a week to go, already 60,000 more absentee ballots
have been cast than in 2000.
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