Pundits Brace for Strange Twists in Election
by Caren Bohan, Reuters, MaconDaily.com
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) – Strange twists may lie ahead in an already suspenseful
presidential race: a disputed ballot count, an inconclusive vote
ultimately resolved by lawmakers or even a sentiment-shifting capture
of Osama bin Laden are just a few possibilities and bizarre twists.
RE-RUN OF 2000 RECOUNT SAGA
…While
states have poured money into voting technology, some are suspicious of
the new systems which lack a track record. Lawyers have descended on
swing states like Florida to scour procedures and be on hand should
grounds for dispute arise.
“We're
clearly not rid of the potential for snafus happening and something
similar to what occurred in 2000 happened again this,” said political
scientist Arthur Miller of the University of Iowa.
POPULAR VOTE AT ODDS WITH ELECTORAL COLLEGE
A
popular-vote win by Kerry combined with an electoral-college loss would
prompt new concerns about representational voting. Democrats would be
outraged about losing the presidency twice in a row because of it.
But
Miller predicted the outcry would be much more muted if Bush won the
popular vote and lost the electoral-college vote, since both sides
would have suffered the impact of the system.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE
The 538
electoral votes that are up for grabs could split evenly. Under the
Constitution, the race would then be thrown into the House of
Representatives, which would almost surely favor Bush given Republican
dominance in the chamber.
SENTIMENT-SHIFTING EVENT
The
11th-hour capture of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or a dire event
such as a terror attack could alter the race if it occurs anytime
within the next [two weeks].
…These
types of events could cut both ways. For example, Osama's capture could
fuel a rally around the flag with a surge toward Bush, or it could even
help Kerry by feeding conspiracy theories that the administration was
timing his capture to tilt the race.
A terror
attack could spur a rally toward Bush or might steer voters toward
Kerry if voters felt Bush had not done enough to secure the homeland.
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