GLOBAL WARMING: “The Day After Tomorrow”…Fact or Fantasy? [FULL TEXT]

GLOBAL WARMING: “The Day After Tomorrow”…Fact or Fantasy?

[FULL TEXT]

By Connie Corcoran Wilson, M.S., Editor

A student of mine from South Korea, Sang Jun Baek, who is currently studying to become a chiropractor at Palmer Chiropractic College in Davenport, recently wrote a paper on global warming for my class in “Communication Skills” at Eastern Iowa Community College. Sang Jun is already a graduate (in sports medicine) of South Korea's most prestigious university. Sang Jun's paper contained many graphs and charts illustrating the points he makes here so effectively, but it was necessary for him to download the information for this paper from the Internet in his native tongue, Korean, as (he said) it was not available to him in English. He then translated the paper into English for our class. When Sang Jun Baek wrote this paper, he had been in our country only four months.

In light of the current Dennis Quaid, Jake Gyllenhall vehicle “The Day After Tomorrow,” I am reproducing Sang Jun Baek's paper with his permission and I wish to give full credit for its excellent content to Sang Jun Baek's voluntary  investigative efforts.



“The Greenhouse Effect”:  The greenhouse effect is a necessary phenomenon that keeps all Earth's heat from escaping to the outer atmosphere.  Without the natural greenhouse effect, it is certain that we would all be lost.  Temperatures on Earth would be much lower than they are now, and the existence of life on this planet would not be possible.  The global average temperature would drop precipitously by 33 degrees from its current 15 degrees to minus 18 degrees Celsius.  The Earth would become a planet of ice.

However, too many greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere could increase the greenhouse effect.  This could result in an increase in mean global temperatures as well as changes in precipitation patterns.

The Earth's atmosphere, a thin blanket of gases, protects the planet from the harshest of the sun's ultraviolet radiation.  The atmosphere, by trapping the Earth's warmth, keeps rivers and oceans from freezing.  Carbon dioxide and water vapor are the most important gases in creating the insulating or “greenhouse effect” of the atmosphere.

Global surface temperatures in 1999 set a new record by a wide margin for the period of instrumental measurement, report researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who analyze data collected from several thousand meteorological stations around the world.  The global temperature exceeds that of the previous record year, 1995, by about 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.4 degrees Fahrenheit).  And, unlike many recent years, the warmth is beginning to hit home; the United States experienced, in 1999, its warmest year in the past several decades.  The global warming is believed by many researchers, including the NASA scientists, to be at least partly a consequence of increasing human-made gases in the atmosphere (i.e., pollution), especially carbon dioxide, which arises from the burning of coal, oil, and gas, and which the Bush administration recently “de-classified” as a pollutant, thereby claiming a +25% improvement by our current Republican administration in alleviating pollution, simply by denying that CO2 is a major cause of pollution.  

Greenhouse warming in the lower atmosphere is associated with increased cooling in the upper atmosphere making conditions that are associated with ozone destruction. The ozone destroying chemical process works best in cold conditions.

The average carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in parts per million by volume (ppmv) observed continuously at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii has steadily spiraled upwards since 1960, from around 310 to upwards of 360, in the period between 1960 and 1995.  The amount of CO2 released in to the atmosphere in the next 30 years is expected to double or triple. The number of cars in operation around the world will double by the year 2030.

The rate of global warming and sea level rise will be higher than previous predictions during the next century.  Estimated land losses range from 0.05% for Uruguay to about 80% for the Majuro Atoll in the Marshall Islands. A 1M (3 feet) sea level rise would affect 6 million people in Egypt, with 12% to 15% of Egypt's agricultural land lost; 13 million in Bangladesh, with 16% of that nation's national rice production lost; and 72 million people in China, with “tens of thousands” of hectares (a hectare is 2.47 acres) of agricultural land lost.  This is based on new information released by the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of about 2,000 scientists who advise the United Nations, revised estimates of the current forecast in sea levels after conducting new studies on the west Antarctic ice sheet.  Two ice shelves on the Antarctic peninsula are crumbling far faster than anyone had predicted. Glaciers along the southeastern coast of Greenland are thinning by more than 3 feet a year—possibly because of global warming, according to a new NASA study. Researchers compared aerial surveys of Greenland's ice sheet, taken in 1993 and 1994, with a similar survey taken last year.  Their data indicated that parts of the ice sheet near the ocean thinned at a rate of more than 3 feet (1 meter) per year.

Alaskan Glacier:

“Why glaciers are behaving like this is a mystery,” says Bill Krabill, a researcher at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. “But it may indicate that the coastal margins of ice sheets are capable of responding quite rapidly to external changes, such as a warming climate.” Krabill went on to say that, if the higher rate of ice flowing in to the ocean from Greenland “accelerates or becomes more widespread, it would begin to have a detectable impact on sea level.”

Ice Sheets and Glaciers Melting:

Around the world, ice sheets and glaciers are melting at a rate unprecedented since record-keeping began.  Changes in the area and volume of the two polar ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are intricately linked to changes in global climate and could result in sea-level changes that would severely affect the densely-populated coastal regions on Earth.

On February 14, 2002, George W. Bush announced the Clear Skies Initiative, which was to be the most aggressive legislative improvement to the Clean Air Act since 1990.  The Clear Skies Initiative Program was to:

1)    Set mandatory caps that would dramatically reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and mercury from electric power generation at levels significantly below current requirements.

2)    Mitigate the health and environmental effects of fine particles, ozone, regional haze, acid rain, eutrophication and mercury, and help the states meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) to protect public health.

3)    Provide greater regulatory certainty for new and existing power plants to allow for cost-efficient planning and compliance.

4)    Provide environmental certainty for the American public and deliver earlier reductions than would be achieved under current law.

Unfortunately, most of these initiatives were later abandoned, along with U.S. support for the Kyoto Protocol, under George W. Bush.

U.S. Government Blames Humans for Global Warming:

June 3, 2002:  A report released by the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) confirms something that scientists have been insisting for years: human activities are largely to blame for the problem of global warming.

Oil refining, power plants and auto emission are singled out as major contributors to the problem.

“Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing global mean surface air temperatures and sub-surface ocean temperatures to rise,” the EPA stated in the report. The inter-agency report was sent to the United Nations.  It included the forecast that total greenhouse emissions by the United States would increase by 43% between 2000 and 2020.  The United States is the largest contributor to the problem of global warming.

Quote from George W. Bush on June, 2001:

“The Earth's well-being is…an issue important to America…and it's an issue that should be important to every nation and in every part of the world.  My Administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate change.  We recognize our responsibility, and we will meet it—at home, in our hemisphere, and in the world.”

[*Editor's note: That was then; this is now.  As Paul O'Neill recounted in his book, The Price of Loyalty, and as Christie Whitman, former New Jersey governor who became head of the EPA under Bush would confirm, Bush soon recanted on this promise, and, as O'Neill sadly says in the book, “We just gave away the environment.”]

EPA Climate Action Report 2002: 

Quote from Christie Whitman, Administrator of the EPA-U.S. Environmental Protection Agency – “There's no question but that global warming is a real phenomenon, that it is occurring, and, while scientists can't predict where the droughts will occur, where the flooding will occur precisely, or when, we know those things will occur. The science is strong there.”

[*Editor's note:  Imagine how frustrated Ms. Whitman was, when she received no “official” position from George W. Bush for months after assuming office, but went off,  to a summit on environmental issues of the leading eight industrialized nations on March 2, in Trieste, Italy, on the Adriatic coast. To quote from Paul O'Neill's book (page 121), “It was already mid-March, she'd been traveling the world representing U.S. policy, but she had yet to be told, by the pResident, what he thought about a central issue of national importance.” The U.S. seemed to have no policy on global warming, after W. assumed office. Ms. Whitman tried to “deduce” what Bush's administrative position might be during an appearance on CNN's “Crossfire,” on February 26th, when she told commentator Robert Novak, “George Bush was very clear during the course of the campaign that he believes in a multipollutant strategy, and that includes CO2.”  Whitman felt that her speculative pronouncement that there were “discussions inside the administration” to add carbon dioxide to the regulatory mix would give the nations assembling in Trieste the impression that the U.S. had a policy on global warming….although, as the head of the EPA, she had yet to be told what it was after three months in office. Unfortunately, Whitman was soon to learn that her early confidence that George W. Bush meant to keep his campaign promises about the environment and global warming was misplaced.

This became clear to O'Neill (Secretary of the Treasury), as well, when a task force with only government employees was formed, …which meant that no reporting requirements would be necessary…something that appealed to Vice pResident Dick Cheney who had often griped about prying questions and loved to operate in utmost secrecy.

According to documents in Paul O'Neill's files (page 146 of his book), the “Committee” included Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, who met with a variety of corporations and trade groups: Chevron, the National Mining Association, the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, Rocky Mountain-based petroleum companies looking to lease federal land and an Indian tribe from Nevada interested in building a power plant.  Cheney met with Enron chairman Kenneth Lay (later of the Enron collapse scandal and a central campaign contributor to George W. Bush's campaign coffers). That group had, as its central concern, that CO2 not be considered a pollutant. The Coal-Based Generation Stakeholders' central position was lifting pollution controls on coal-fueled generators; all had come to the right place and to the right people to get their way. As O'Neill says, in his book, “It meant that environmental concerns went virtually unrepresented.”

During a meeting on March 19th which lasted an hour, everyone had a “scripted” part. The coal industry…which still produces half of the nation's energy….talked about how rising gas prices could be caused by “unfolding supply constraints” in the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Ann Veneman gave a short rendition of how rising fuel prices would affect agriculture.  Larry Lindsey (who was later fired, along with O'Neill) outlined how energy costs hit certain segments of the economy particularly hard.  Amazingly, Christie Whitman, the head of the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) was not asked to speak at all. Bush did not ask any questions and, indeed, did not appear to have even read the short memos that had been sent him by both Whitman and O'Neill…who had always been very interested in global warming and protecting the environment.  As O'Neill would later recount in his book, this meeting, was like many others that he would attend over the course of two years.  “The only way I can describe it is that, well, the pResident is like a blind man in a roomful of deaf people.  There is no discernible connection.” (page 149 of O'Neill's book)

After one such meeting, Whitman, trying to represent environmental issues in a room stacked against her, said, to O'Neill, “This is slaughter. It's ten on two, not counting (the) White House people and all the advisers to the group from the various industries.” (page 154 of O'Neill's book)  As O'Neill would go on to say, on page 156 of his book, “When you have people with a strong ideological position, and you only hear from one side, you can pretty much predict the outcome.  Let's just say the recommendations generally did not meet the high standard of 'in the broad public interest.'”  

All of this rankled with O'Neill, who once had written (during his days as CEO of Alcoa), “We are environmentalists first and industrialists second.” (page 23 of O'Neill's book). For quite some time Christie Whitman of the EPA continued to represent to the rest of the world that the U.S.would continue to support the Kyoto Protocol, only to learn that George W. Bush had no intention of living up to his stirring words of June, 2001 or any other campaign promises he had made about protecting the environment.]

Quote from Carol M. Browner, former Administrator of the EPA: 

“The climate change challenge…will not be solved by government.  It won't be solved by business.  It will be solved when we capture the spirit of Earth Day every day and join it to the dedication of the American people to the future of their families.”

Eco Disaster Imminent:

Peter Ewins, chief executive of the British Met Office, and James Baker, head of the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) have broken traditional scientific caution over the dangers of the greenhouse effect and have warned that rising sea levels, extreme weather conditions, and an increase in disease, are unavoidable in the next century.  Ewins and Baker said, “Our new data and understanding now point to the critical situation we face: to slow future change, we must start taking action soon.  At the same time, because of our past and ongoing activities, we must start to live with the likely consequences—more extreme weather, rising sea levels, changing precipitation patterns, ecological and agricultural dislocation and the spread of human disease.”  The letter continues, “Articles in the U.S. press imply that the global warming threat is being oversold, by citing particular examples of short-term natural changes.  But the overall pattern of recent short-term changes is consistent with scientists' projections of the impact of global climate change.  Our agencies are doing their best to provide the best possible data, understanding, and forecasting, for policy makers as they deal with these issues. Ignoring climate change will surely be the most costly of all possible choices, for us and for our children.”

Dr. James Baker, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): “You see a temperature change of about 1 degree Fahrenheit in 100 years. This is not a big change.  But, over the past 20 years, the change has been four times that.”

Carol Browner, former head of the EPA:  “If we fail to take prudent sensible steps to address the problem of climate change now, our children and their children will simply be overwhelmed.  Rising seas, rising temperatures, the threat to public and economic health around the world, the prospect is very real.  In the end, failure is not an option.  The consequences of global warming are that severe.”

James Lee Witt, former Director of FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) said: “There is no doubt that the human and financial costs of weather related disasters have been increasing in recent years.  It is time to increase our efforts in applying prevention strategies to reduce the impact of the changes in weather climates.”

NASA satellite data suggest that, for more than two decades, there has been a gradual greening of the northern latitudes of the Earth.  Researchers confirm that plant life seen above 40 degrees north latitude, which represents a line stretching from New York to Madrid to Beijing, has been growing more vigorously since 1981.  One suspected cause is rising temperatures, possibly linked to the build-up of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

Over this same time period, parts of the Northern Hemisphere have become much greener and the growing season has increased by several days.  Furthermore, Eurasia appears to be greening more than North America, with more lush vegetation for longer periods of time.  “When we looked at temperature and satellite vegetation data, we saw that year-to-year changes in growth and duration of the growing season of northern vegetation are tightly linked to year-to-year changes in temperature,” said Liming Zhou of Boston University.  The area of vegetation has not extended, but the existing vegetation has increased in density.

The greenness data from satellites strongly correlate with temperature data from thousands of meteorological stations on both  continents.  The Eurasian greening was especially persistent over a broad area from central Europe through Siberia to far-eastern Russia, where most of the vegetation is forests and woodlands.  North America, in comparison, shows a fragmented pattern of change notable only in the forests of the East and the grasslands of the upper Midwest.

Dramatic changes in the timing of both the appearance and fall of leaves are recorded in the last two decades of satellite data.  The authors report a growing season in Eurasia that is now 18 days longer. Spring arrives a week earlier and autumn is delayed by 10 days.  In North America, the growing season appears to be as much as 12 days longer than previously.

The researchers used a temperature data set developed from the Global Historical Climate Network.  Dr. James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, located in New York, developed this data set and commented, “The data were compiled from several thousand meteorological stations in the United States and from around the world.  The stations also include many rural sites where the data are collected by cooperative private observers.”

Scientists believe the results indicate a greener greenhouse.  “This is an important finding because of possible implications to the global carbon cycle,” said Ranga Myneni of Boston University.  “However, more research is needed to determine how much carbon is being absorbed and how much longer this will continue.”

Carbon dioxide is a main greenhouse gas and it is suspected of playing a role in rising global temperatures.  If the northern forests are greening, they may already be absorbing carbon, a process that can impact global temperature changes.

Researchers using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) help to determine the “greening” of plant life.  Dr. Compton Tucker of NASA's Goddard Space Fight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, is a co-author of the report and developed the NDVI index to analyze spectral data collected by orbiting weather satellites. NASA satellite data suggests that, for more than two decades, there has been a gradual greening of the northern latitudes of the Earth. Researchers confirm that plant life seen above 40 degrees north latitude, which represents a line stretching from New York to Madrid to Beijing, has been growing ever more vigorously since 1981.  Again, the build-up of greenhouse gases is implicated.

“When we looked at temperature and satellite vegetation data, we saw that year-to-year changes in growth and duration of the growing season of northern vegetation are tightly linked to year-to-year changes in temperature,” said Liming Zhou of Boston University.  

[*Editor's note: While the catastrophic sequences of “The Day After Tomorrow” may not come to pass that suddenly or dramatically, we would be foolish to assume that there is no possibility of weather-related catastrophe(s) occurring  with much more frequency, if global warming is allowed to continue. The data is clear. We must act now.]

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