BFIA co-editor Dave Bradley and I share a commitment to the idea that our dysfunctional media system owns a large amount of responsibility for the fix our country is in right now.  Over-simplification of issues, horse race political coverage, getting stuck on a single media narrative, glorifying and obsessing about Trump at the expense of  coverage of everything else, etc.  We have posted probably more on the topic of media than any other single topic.

Dave and I were talking about how annoying it is to have the media punditry – local, statewide and national, go on and on about Trump’s HUGE lead in Iowa and his “inevitable” big win here, giving the average viewer the impression Iowa is nothing more than a bunch of hicks and/or right wing fascists. It is embarrassing and aggravating to those of us who remember when Iowa was once a leader in civil rights, civil liberties and progressive ideas, advancement of women and minorities and rational thought.

Dave took a look at the numbers and offers this counter-narrative:

It will be interesting to see how bad the Trump victory in Iowa will make us look.  I am so sick of hearing that Trump is getting 60% in Iowa. They seldom say “of  republican caucus goers” which is usually less than 5% of registered Republicans which is @30% of Iowans. So Trump gets 60% of 30% (18%) of the 5% that turn out = @1% of Iowa voters.

Not exactly an overwhelming show. (One of the reason I hate the caucuses). But that 1% makes Iowa look like a state full of far right whack jobs.

 The fact of the matter is Trump is only popular among a very small number of Iowans:

.6 (Trump rating) x .3 (Iowa registered Republican) = .18 (potential total Iowans for Trump) x .5(per cent of those who will caucus) = .09 total Iowans who will caucus for Trump. Barely beats the margin of error rate.

Dave is taking some time off from writing but will be back soon. Meanwhile, the weekend is in the capable hands of Paul Deaton, so don’t go anywhere!