And now for some serious, data-based discussion of the 2018 mid-term election results brought to you by The Democratic Strategist. [There is also a fascinating read When The GOP Gerrymanders Should Dems Do The Same? on the TDS site that is food for strategic thought.]
Three Profoundly Dangerous Myths About the 2018 Election is nine pages long but here is a snippet:
Analysts I trusted concluded that [the Democratic 2018 victories occurred] because suburban and college-educated women issued “a sharp rebuke to President Trump” that set off a “blue wave through the urban and suburban House districts.” At first, I also believed that was the main story line. [But in fact] Democrats cut the Republicans’ margin in rural areas by 13 points, according to the Edison exit poll and by seven points in one by Catalyst. Democrats still lost rural America by somewhere between 14 and 18 points so that left Democrats in a pickle there. That had implications for the Senate, but it shouldn’t conceal the fact that Democrats actually made progress in rural areas.
In the days immediately after the 2018 elections the most widely circulated analysis held that the significant Democratic victories were produced by the votes of people of color, college educated whites, particularly women and voters in “suburbs” across the country. In contrast, white voters with less than a college education, the group generally defined as the “white working class,” and voters in rural areas were described as remaining completely committed to Trump and the GOP.
The strategic conclusion this implied was obvious: efforts to regain support among these voters would be a waste of time. For 2020 and beyond, all Democratic efforts at voter persuasion and mobilization should be focused on educated whites, the suburbs and people of color.
But in recent weeks new data has emerged–data that sharply contradicts this initial assessment and suggests that the strategic conclusions that have been drawn from it are profoundly and dangerously wrong.
The Democratic Strategist is pleased to present the following Strategy Memo:
Click HERE to read the memo.
We believe you will find this memo both useful and important.
The Democratic Strategist
The Democratic Strategist is a web-based publication that seeks to provide a forum and meeting ground for the serious, data-based discussion of Democratic political strategy.