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Thinking About the 2014 Elections

by Ralph Scharnau

Midterm elections draw fewer voters than presidential elections. This year’s midterm elections promise a turnout of 40 percent, the highest since 1982, reflecting sharp differences on issues and unprecedented campaign spending.

The membership of the House of Representatives now stands at 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 vacant seats. The Senate has 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Iowa has generated much media attention because of the closely contested House and Senate congressional races.

The money spent on this midterm election cycle is projected to be the largest in history, exceeding $4 billion. Just over half of broadcast advertising in the midterm elections has been paid for by groups that do not fully disclose their donors. The money fuels the campaigns with media ads, door-to-door canvassing, phone calls, and an overlay of data analytics.

The reports on campaigning sometimes tend to neglect issues. The Democrats have clear positions on issues important to voters. The party supports creating jobs, raising the minimum wage, improving the ACA, making education more affordable, preserving Social Security and Medicare, building infrastructure, and addressing climate change. While the Republicans obstruct the Democrats’ legislative initiatives, they fail to offer their own policies and rely more on platitudes.

Which party controls the Senate may not be decided on November 4. With at least 10 close races and unpredictable factors such as recounts, non-major party candidates, and run offs, the final results may not be known until several weeks after the election.

A total of 36 states, plus the District of Columbia, allow voters to cast their ballots before the November 4 midterm elections. Becoming more and more popular, early voting reduces wait time at the polls and gives poll workers time to resolve glitches in the system. Most importantly, it helps those who are low income and labor in workplaces that make no provision for time off to vote.

Since 2010, Republican dominated states have pursued voting restrictions. These include requiring voter-ID, shortening early voting days, eliminating election-day registration, or imposing other restrictions. Voters in 15 Republican dominated states will face new restrictions, including states like Arkansas, Kansas, and Wisconsin with highly contested U.S. Senate and governors’ races.

Voter ID laws have been promoted mainly by Republicans who claim the requirement prevents fraud. Voting rights groups, civil rights groups, and the Obama administration have mounted legal challenges to these laws, pointing to the statistical evidence that in-person voter fraud is virtually non-existent.
The effect of the restrictive laws is to suppress turnout among Democratic-leaning groups, blacks and Hispanics, youth, low income people as well as those who don’t have the necessary documents or the money or time to get photo IDs. The non-partisan Government Accountability Office reported that strict photo ID laws in Kansas and Tennessee lowered voter participation in the 2012 elections by roughly 2 percent.

The voter ID laws operate like a modern version of the unconstitutional poll tax. The Supreme Court recently blocked the implementation of Wisconsin’s controversial photo-ID voter requirement.

Republicans have also generally distanced themselves from Latino voters. Latino political influence continues to emerge while the voting power of the Republican’s white base continues to wane. When Republicans see immigration reform in mostly punitive terms of border enforcement, it not only alienates Latinos but also other growth segments of the electorate like younger and Asian American voters.

The election is all about voter turnout. If progressives, persuadable independents, and union members as well as blacks, Latinos, women, and young people turnout in large numbers, Democrats will likely maintain their control of the Senate and perhaps even add a few seats in the House.

Ralph Scharnau
October 30, 2014