Kos: Grassley Vulnerable to Vilsack Challenge
by Kos, Daily Kos
Following the assumption that it is never too early to discuss the NEXT election, Markos, over at Daily Kos, has compiled this information for those of us who are interested in Iowa politics.[A new] Research 2000 [poll] for Daily Kos [shows the following numbers for a Grassley/Vilsack match up in 2010].
12/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4%
Grassley (R) 48
Vilsack (D) 44
Woah, what? Sen. Chuck Grassley is vulnerable? Granted, it's against the state's top Democrat — former Gov. Tom Vilsack, and there's currently no indication that Vilsack is planning on running. But the [common wisdom] is that Grassley serves at will, and can hold the seat for life if he so desires. That belief is challenged by these numbers. Against the right Democrat, Grassley would face a tough fight.
Grassley
Approve 57
Disapprove 36
Vilsack
Approve 55
Disapprove 36
Their approval numbers are essentially even, and in the crosstabs, they both enjoy equal approval from independents. This would certainly be a battle of titans, pitting two popular politicians against each other. Expect incoming DSCC chief Bob Menendez to put Vilsack in his speed dial.
As for Grassley, he'll be 77 on Election Day 2010. While many political observers expect him to retire, others beg to differ. No one really knows for sure. Now if Chuck expected an easy re-election, his chances of retiring diminish. But does he really want to raise millions and fight hard in a Blue-trending state, only to sit in the deep minority? Doesn't seem so appealing.
See the complete set of stats here.
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